北朝鮮の核実験 Nuke Experiment in NK

うわーーーー。
きな臭い投稿をしていた折も折，実験しちゃったみたいですね…

安全保障専攻の某オーストラリア人コーチのために，日本のメディアや対応の様子などを書いて送りました。通常こちらにはそういうメールの内容はアップしていないんですが，話題が話題ですし，タイミングがタイミングですし，折角ですから今回はアップしてみますね。一部昨日の投稿と被っていますがあしからず。

ホント，「東京湾に大量破壊兵器がやってきたら」なんていう机上の空論する前に，領土外にある確かな脅威にどう対応するつもりなのかを説明して欲しいです．．．ちなみに具体的なアクションについて一番言及してるのは石破元防衛庁長官みたいですね。賛成するかは別として，こういう風に具体的に言ってくれると助かりますね。･･･うわ，石破さんって慶應の法学部出身だったんだ･･･知らんかった･･･微妙な気持ち･･･

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1. Nuke Experiment in NK

Was reported by Choson Chunang (North Korean TV channel. Its name meansKorea Central) in this morning. Japanese Meteological Agency confirmedshake of magnitude 4.9 at AM10:35 with characteristic wave pattern whosehypocenter was in North Korea. Assuming that North Korea used 20t, theshake was too small for a successful experiment, military analysts say.They say that it is likely that North Korea will try other types of nukein future, based on what they learned from this experience.

2. Radiation

Immediate concern is possibility of leaked radiation. Because of thewesterly, Japanese are nervous about its affects to Japanese islands.The affect of radiation will reach Japanese islands 6 hours later atearliest. Because Tokyo is in East Japan, it will reach Tokyo a littlelater than that. According to the professionals, the amount of radiation is small enough and we do not need to worry about harm to people even in the worst case but US Army in Japan, SDF, RiskManagement Centres of Nuclear Power Plants and Meteological Agency areconducting special surveillances. According to the Meteological Agency,Tokyo is likely to have rain the day after tomorrow. Remembering the experience of "Black Rain" in Nagasaki, it is one of factors to worry.

3. Reaction

PM Abe had been visiting China and South Korea for top meetings and isnow on the way back to Tokyo from Seoul. At this moment, KanbochokanMr. Shiozaki and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Aso are havingmeetings with American ambassador. They are likely to pressure China tostop feeding oil to North Korea. PM Abe held a press conference withPresident Roh in Seoul and said that he would consider harsher sanctionon NK.

Here are thepossibilities of reactions by Japan other than demanding UN SecurityCouncil to pass another motion.

(1) Halting the movement of people between NK and Japan

Exchange of officials is already banned. But not the private citizens.As you know, we have a lot of Korean residents in Japan and a half ofthem are North Koreans. Because of the historical background, Japanesegovernment did not tell them not to visit their extended family in theircountry however, it is likely to become more restrictive in order tostop the cash flaw through them.

(2) Blockade

Bank Transfer in general became very ristrictive here since last year. (Even though we of debaters are sending money to Australia for Australslast year, we had to show papers to prove that we are transferring for agood reason.) But because they can bypass this restriction with sendintthe money through the third country, Japan needs to consider blockadingthe cash flaw not "from Japan" but "into North Korea", Ex-DefenceMinister Ishiba said just a few hours ago. Mr. Ishiba is one of theopinion leaders for hawkish political groups and it might affect thedebate in the cabinet.

(3) Amending the Law on a Situation in the Areas Surrounding Japan"

The Law on a Situation in the Areas Surrounding Japan"(1999) enabledSDF to "demand" a indiscriminative screening of each ship only when theUN Security Council pass the motion based on Article 7. But what SDF cando with this law is just to ask ships to let them conduct the screeningand it cannot oblige them. So, again, telegenic Mr. Ishiba stated thatwe need to amend this law as well.

(4) Passing another special temporal law to permit SDF to go abroad

Just as the Diet did for dispatching SDF to Iraq, it might pass anotherlaw to allow SDF to provide logistic support for the US outside ofJapanese soil.

(5) Passing a general law

LDP already started drafting a bill to allow SDF to go abroad withoutspecial and temporal laws for the specific purposes. They haven'tdisclosed the content of this bill yet.

(6) Constitutional Amendment (Article 9)

Obviously, what PM Abe want is this one. But this will take for a whileand till then, LDP is likely to push the other methods above.

4. Amending Article 9

This is an enormously complex debate and the most dead heated debate inJapan in the last 60 years. But to summarise...

(1) Preface of Japanese Constitution

The following is the full text of it.
It is widely known that this preface is paired with Article 9.

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We, the Japanese people, acting through our duly elected representativesin the National Diet, determined that we shall secure for ourselves and our posterity the fruits of peacefulcooperation with all nations and the blessings of liberty throughoutthis land, and resolved that never again shall we be visited with thehorrors of war through the action of government, do proclaim that sovereign power resides with the people and do firmlyestablish this Constitution. Government is a sacred trust of the people,the authority for which is derived from the people, the powers of whichare exercised by the representatives of the people, and the benefits ofwhich are enjoyed by the people. This is a universal principle ofmankind upon which this Constitution is founded. We reject and revokeall constitutions, laws ordinances, and rescripts in conflict herewith. We, the Japanese people, desire peace for all time and are deeplyconscious of the high ideals controlling human relationship and we havedetermined to preserve our security and existence, trusting in thejustice and faith of the peace-loving peoples of the world. We desire to occupy an honored place in an international societystriving for the preservation of peace, and the banishment of tyrannyand slavery, oppression and intolerance for all time from the earth. Werecognize that all peoples of the world have the right to live in peace,free from fear and want. We believe that no nation is responsible toitself alone, but that laws of political morality are universal; andthat obedience to such laws is incumbent upon all nations who wouldsustain their own sovereignty and justify their sovereign relationshipwith other nations. We, the Japanese people, pledge our national honorto accomplish these high ideals and purposes with all our resources.
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(2) Article 9

And the following is the full text of Article 9.

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CHAPTER II: RENUNCIATION OF WAR
Article 9:
Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order,the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of thenation and the threat or use of force as means of settling internationaldisputes.
2) In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea,and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained.The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.
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(3) Interpretation

There are more than a hundred ways to interpret the Preface and theArticle 9. But Japanese government classifies "warfare" into threelevels and the following is its official stance which is known as"Defence Only Defence Policy".

i) Right to Individual DefenceJapan has it and can excersize it.
ii) Right to Collective DefenceJapan has it but CANNOT excersize it
iii) Right to OffenceJapan DOES NOT have it and CANNOT excersize it

Therefore, unless Japanese soil gets attacked by foreign military,Japanese SDF is not allowed to shoot a bullet. Many of the countermeasuresI listed above are likely to violate this principle.

At this moment, although American force has to defend Japan based onUS-Japan Security Treaty in case Japan was attacked by someone, JapaneseSDF cannot defend US if US was attacked because it becomes collectivedefence. This principle was made based on the experience of WW2 whereJapan invaded China claiming collective defence with Manchuria.

In terms of PKO, there are 5 conditions before dispatching SDFfor PKO.

(i) Peace agreement is signed by every parties in the conflict
(ii) Interested country/countries demand PKO
(iii) PKO is keeping absolute neutrality
(iiii) SDF would be in the condition that it can withdraw anytime
(iiii) SDF would be only with very light arms (defensive only)

Plus, Japanese government distinguishes PKO and PKF and SDF cannotparticipate in PKF. SDF has been participating in PKO since 1992.

In the case of current problem of North Korea, it is outside of Japanesesoil and does not meet the 5 conditions above, SDF cannot excersize itspower under the current legal framework. That is probably why LDP is considering numerous bills to change these principles.
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